UPDATE 2-Pound enjoys biggest weekly rise in a month as no-deal Brexit fears wane

By Kitco News / March 01, 2019 / www.kitco.com / Article Link


* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019
* Graphic: Trade-weighted sterling since Brexit vote (Updates prices)By Saikat ChatterjeeLONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - The pound slipped on Fridayafter survey data showed British factories slashed jobs inFebruary, but still enjoyed its biggest weekly rise in a monthon receding fears that Britain will leave the European Unionwithout a deal.The British currency surged to multi-month highs this weekafter Prime Minister Theresa May said lawmakers would get tovote on a delay to Brexit if they choose not to approve herwithdrawal agreement.Traders backed off forecasts for a no-deal Brexit and beganto expect a delay of the departure date beyond March 29.


That has ignited a rally in the pound and traders saidbarring a surprise, sterling was set to extend gains against thedollar in the near term."Barring any major negative surprises in the near term, wecould see Cable heading into the 1.36, 1.37 region with limiteddownside risk," said Fritz Louw, a currency strategist at MUFG.The pound edged 0.3 percent lower at $1.3213. Forthe week, it was up 1.5 percent. Against the euro ,the pound was down by 0.4 percent at 86.12 pence.Comments by British policymakers added to the moreoptimistic tone.Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said this week thecentral bank would probably give more support to the economy ifit suffers the shock of a no-deal Brexit, though its options arelimited.With the risk of no-deal seen to be dwindling, impliedvolatility gauges, a measure of expected swings in the pound,extended their drop across the board.Implied volatility usually rises when market participantshedge their positions before an event which may have a negativeimpact on a currency.In the pound's case, the countdown to Brexit day on March 29has prompted companies and hedge funds to buy impliedvolatility, bracing for a sharp rise in price moves.Three-month sterling/dollar implied volatility -- a measureof expected price swings -- is approaching five-month lows . Similar moves were seen in the far end of thecurve, especially one-year segments. But some market strategists advised caution after somelawmakers signalled their opposition to May's offer of a vote ona delay.Farming minister George Eustice resigned from the governmenton Thursday and former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said May'swithdrawal agreement with the European Union needs to change,particularly on the issue of the Northern Irish backstop."Sterling had to retrace some of its spectacular gainsrecorded earlier on in the week ... a postponement is notsomething that the UK can chose as it pleases," Commerzbankstrategists wrote in a note.Britain cannot unilaterally delay Brexit but needs theagreement of the other EU member states.Weak data is also a factor. The IHS Markit/CIPS UKManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a gauge ofactivity in British industry, fell to 52.0 from 52.6 in January,as expected in a Reuters poll of economists. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^GBP positions ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Reuters Messaging: saikat.chatterjee.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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