Talking Points From This Episode- Bond Markets and Rates- Powel's Speech and Fed Actions- Decentralization, Markets, and Bitcoin- Silver, the Comex, and Gold
Time Stamp References:0:00?EUR< - Intro0:31?EUR< - Vincent's Background1:52?EUR< - Bonds & Yield Curve Control4:22?EUR< - Powell Speech5:19?EUR< - Bonds & Broader Markets7:17?EUR< - Correlations Don't Matter9:32?EUR< - GME and Short Covering.12:10?EUR< - Risk and Controlling FOMO.14:04?EUR< - End Game Thoughts16:58?EUR< - Bitcoin and Hyperinflation20:23?EUR< - Comex & Silver21:45?EUR< - Comex Default Risk23:49?EUR< - Fighting Decentralization28:07?EUR< - Gold Last to Rally30:24?EUR< - Gold Signposts32:21?EUR< - Michael's Moor's Analytics35:14?EUR< - Wrap Up
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Vincent Lanci. Vince discusses his background in energy and precious metals and he manages money for a couple of hedge funds.
Vince explains some of the terms surrounding the bond markets and the current signs of low investor interest. Strangely, there was a massive reaction on Thursday's Treasury auction to that lack of interest. The market was behaving like it expected the Fed to raise rates.
In his speech on Thursday, everything that Powell said revealed the Fed would not raise rates, and they were not concerned by inflation. They stated they would remain extremely accommodating.
A small stock like GME can have an outsized effect on the market because it reveals the system's large amount of leverage. This leverage has caused cascading risk effects thru the system and has affected market psychology. Don't risk anything your not prepared to lose because leverage will eventually be called.
This market has to end with either extreme inflation or extreme deflation. Vince explains how things could move in either direction. We may have a deflationary collapse, and inevitably, this all ends with something like a reset.
He is bullish on Bitcoin as a technology but cautions that it moves based on a lot of FOMO. Bitcoin may be getting ahead of itself, and it's hard to judge what the price should be because it's all based on demand. At some point, there will be further regulatory decisions that will likely hinder those accessing it.
Silver won't be easy to squeeze because it's not Gamestop stock; it's a sizeable physical market. Comex default will likely be a slow process because they will do whatever it takes to avoid a hit to their reputation. He argues there are many things they can and will do to slow the market down. Also, they can change the rules.
Vince Lanci is Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC. Vince founded Echobay after a profitable career running CiS Options and Berard Capital. The firm is a vehicle for expressing his and "friends and family" personal investment ideas. Echobay also consults on market structure, risk management, and legal cases involving fraud in markets. Vince is also a regular contribute to ZeroHedge.com