Why Kohl's Stock Could Sink Even Deeper In The Second Quarter

Kohl's has historically underperformed during the second quarter

The retail sector hasn't stood a chance these past few months, and things seems to be reaching a fever pitch, especially for department stores, with many sector members trading at new annual lows today. One name right in the thick of things is Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) with the shares festering near new record lows, off 2.3% at $12.64 at last check.

While it's hard to say what will happen next for any particular stock during this period of extreme volatility, history is not on KSS' side. In fact, the security just showed up on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of the 25 worst stocks to own during the second quarter. Kohl's has only seen two positive returns in the last 10 years, and averaged an return of -8.69% during this time period. From its current perch, a similar move would put the retail stock at $11.54.

Meanwhile, analysts are approaching KSS with caution. Just one of the 13 in coverage consider the equity to be a "strong buy," while ten call it a "hold," and two say "sell." The stock is ripe for price target cuts, however, based on its consensus 12-month price target of $30, which more than doubles current levels.

Options bears are capitalizing on Kohl's eyebrow-raising 75% year-to-date deficit. The security sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.44 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio sits in the elevated 77th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a healthier appetite for long puts than usual.

Short interest has also been on the rise, up 11.5% in the last two reporting periods. The 19.46 million shares sold short make up a healthy 12.7% of the stock's available float, and represent over a week of trading at its average daily pace. However, it's worth noting that Kohl's has landed itself on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list today.