Why the mining bull market is unlikely to end any time soon
In the June INK Top Mining & Crypto-equities Report NATO 5%, we make the case that the bull markets in gold and metals miners can continue for years come. In case you missed the report, Club members can download it from the Reports section, or you can read our commentary which we provide in this post.
June 25, 2025 - In our December 2023 Top Mining & Crypto-equities Report, we wrote about a sea of trouble for the greenback. We were looking at the threat to shipping posed by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, in the Red Sea and the United States' attempts to allow freer passage for vessels. At the time, we suggested that it was a test for the United States to maintain a key foundation in dollar hegemony, naval power.
Ultimately, the US retreated from the Red Sea conflict in 2025 after the Trump administration announced a cessation of hostilities with the Houthis during a press availability session with Canada's Mark Carney at the White House on May 7th. The retreat took place as the Trump administration was also seeking a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War, an objective that has remained elusive. The steps taken in the Red Sea and Ukraine arguably leaned toward reducing hostilities, but on June 21st, the United States entered the Iran-Israel War on the side of Israel by bombing nuclear sites in Iran. Two days later, all three belligerents agreed to a ceasefire. As we write this report, the truce still holds.
Ukraine tanks in Poland (source NATO)
A common characteristic in the three conflicts is the lack of decisive victory for the NATO block. At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, the political leaders of the block decided to up their game. In the summit's declaration, the allies said, "in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism, Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035." The group also announced its High Visibility Project would help facilitate access to defence critical raw materials such as lithium, titanium, and rare earth materials.
If the block follows through on its commitments, defence procurement will support mining activity for years to come. That would be bullish for industrial metals. There is also a lot at stake for precious metals. Bigger defence budgets will likely prove to be inflationary which would likely put downward pressure on real interest rates. In addition, if one assumes that military dominance is a core requirement for dollar hegemony, the envisioned military build-up could determine if the US dollar is able to regain market share in reserve asset allocations. Those looking for a top in gold will likely have to wait to see how the NATO rearmament gambit plays out in conflict theatres in the years ahead.
Competition for inclusion in the Top 20 was once again fierce this month with all names having sunny INK Edge outlooks. To read which mining stocks made the top 20 and see which crypto-equities are leading in our rankings, join the Canadian Insider Ultra Club. New members use coupon INKPDF for a 20% discount on your first-year membership. Intro members please upgrade here via your Membership Status tab>>