In the past, the Treasury market was terribly wrong about this. In these instances, the 10-year yield had no predictive quality. It was just a stupid move that then self-corrected brutally. The last such idiocy happened in 2016. The good folks who made that move are still ruing the day.
Wolf Richter is the founder of Wolf Street Corp and the publisher of WolfStreet.com. Wolf has over twenty years of C-level operations experience, including turnarounds and a VC-funded startup. He has a BA, MA, and MBA (UT at Austin). In his prior life, he worked in Texas and Oklahoma, including a decade as General Manager and COO of a large Ford dealership and its subsidiaries.